Brian Ojanpa
Two Gustavus students break down baseball’s ‘juice factor’
When Gustavus Adolphus basketball player Tyler Kramer went down with a knee injury midway through the season, he began homing in baseball.
He and project partner Dan Johnson went deep, and the result was a statistical study on the impact of steroids on homer production that throws some cold water on the debate.
The study’s key finding:
“We don’t think steroids have as big an impact as people assume,” Kramer says.
In fact, the study concluded that over the arc of players’ careers, the guys who didn’t juice had a slight homer edge on the guys who did.
“We found the recurring theme throughout our research was that non-users had higher homer averages,” he says.
The two seniors — Kramer is from Hayfield, Johnson is from St. Cloud — worked on the study a couple of hours daily for a month.
The effort has put the pair in select company. In May they will travel to The Ohio State University to present their findings at the United States Conference On Teaching Statistics.
For their sample group, Kramer and Johnson used players who were, or are, the top home run hitters in the game. The players were divided into three groups — “users,” “assumed users” and “non-users.”
Non-users included the likes of Hank Aaron, Mike Schmidt, Jimmie Foxx, Roger Maris, Babe Ruth.
Users and assumed users included players such as Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, and Jason Giambi.
Except for certain anomaly seasons, i.e. Bonds’ 73-homer year, the study found that non-users among this elite sample group fared better over the total duration of their careers.
The study broke performance down into various bits. For example, comparisons were made involving the best five homer years for all players. Even in that, non-users during their peak years slugged more homers than users did in their peak slugging years.
The study found that admitted and presumed steroid users averaged 41.36 homers during their best five years, and non-users averaged 43.38 over their best five seasons.
The study also showed that non-users’ peak years came earlier in their careers, while users’ peak years came later, presumably aided by their fountain of youth juice.
Kramer’s and Johnson’s numbers crunching also concluded that Bonds’ 73-homer season in 2003 was, and will remain, a singular rarity.
The ascertained statistical probability of someone — user or not — breaking that record? Virtually zero.
Brian Ojanpa is a Free Press staff writer. Call him at 344-6316 or e-mail bojanpa@mankato freepress.com.
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