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April 20, 2008

Liriano is not the pitcher he once was

By Edward Thoma

Patience is a virtue, but most of us aren’t particularly virtuous about Francisco Liriano.

We’re greedy. We want the pre-injury Liriano, the dazzling wunderkind, and we want him now.

But we’re not getting that. Off his first two big league starts this season, he’s clearly not the Liriano of 2006.

That was to be expected. As has been said in this space before, the recovery from ligament-replacement surgery (for starting pitchers) is really a two-year process. The first year is rehabbing off the field; the second year is pitching as part of rehab.

Liriano is still rebuilding the elbow. The fastball velocity, which was consistently in the mid-90s in 2006 and sometimes reached 97, now sits around 90 mph. With time, that velocity is likely to improve.

A further problem — and again, one likely to improve as he pitches more — is his lack of command. He’s almost even in balls to strikes (90 balls, 98 strikes) in his two major league outings to date; he should be around two strikes for every ball.

But there are two other factors in his lower level of performance — factors that reach beyond the physical condition of his elbow and shoulder and to the very essence of him as a pitcher.

First, and perhaps most important, is pitch selection. In 2006, according to Aaron Gleeman, Liriano threw 43 percent fastballs, 38 percent sliders and 19 percent changeups. (Gleeman doesn’t source that statement.) That’s an extremely high percentage of sliders — more than any full-time starter that season, according to Baseball Info Solutions — and the Twins were concerned all along that Liriano’s heavy use of that pitch exposed him to injury.

Johan Santana, in contrast, is a fastball-changeup pitcher who throws an occasional slider. That’s the model Liriano is apparently trying to emulate now.

It may not work for him. Even in 2006, Liriano frequently had difficulty commanding his fastball — but he could, and often did, get around that by relying on the slider. Taking that out of his arsenal is a problem.

The other change is in his mechanics. This stuff is difficult to see with the naked eye, but there’s a useful video and a couple of still photos online (I have the link posted in my blog) illustrating how he has lowered his arm when “loading” to throw. Exactly what effect this has on his health and on his stuff is unknowable.

There are tradeoffs involved here. If the new throwing motion and different pitch selection keeps him healthy but less effective, do the Twins benefit?

If the Liriano we’ve seen in his first two starts is as good as it gets, he doesn’t belong in the major leagues. But to make that judgment off two starts is to be impatient.



Edward Thoma is a Free Press staff writer. He is at 344-6377 or at ethoma@ mankatofreepress.com. He also has a baseball blog.

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