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June 14, 2009

Mauer and .400: It’s a tough mark to catch

This is how difficult it is to hit .400:

Joe Mauer exited Sunday’s game riding an eight-game hitting streak. He had at least two hits in five of those games, going 14-for-35. And his batting average fell five points.

Nobody’s hit .400 (while qualifying for the batting title) since Ted Williams in 1941.

Mauer has stirred up some speculation along those lines, which will happen when a two-time batting champ enters mid-June hitting .414.

But man, are the odds against him.

The trick’s been turned 13 times since the American League started.

Two men — Ty Cobb (1911, ’12 and ’22) and Rogers Hornsby (1922, ’24 and ’25) did it three times each. George Sisler did it twice (1920, ’22). The others, chronologically, are Nap Lajoie (1901), Joe Jackson (1911), Harry Heilmann (1923), Bill Terry (1930) and Williams.

Lajoie’s 1901 is somewhat suspect, as it was the AL’s first season as a major league and play probably wasn’t quite up to speed. Still, the man hit .426, so give him credit.

If there’s going to be another .400 hitter, what does this list tell us about that hitter?

He’s going to be left-handed.

Hornsby, Lajoie and Heilmann are the only right-handers to hit .400 in the modern era. Left-handed hitters have the platoon advantage more frequently then right-handers, and they start a couple of steps closer to first base, making it a bit easier to leg out hits.

Mauer, of course, is left-handed.

It’s going to come in an era of high averages, with multiple challengers to the mark.

Look at that list again. Cobb and Jackson each topped .400 in 1911, and Cobb did it again the next season — and Jackson hit “just” .395.

We see another spurt in the early 1920s — one in 1920, three guys in 1922 (Hornsby, Cobb and Sisler), one each in 1923, ’24 and ’25. League averages in that period were always above .280 and often above .290.

When Terry hit .401 in 1930, the National League average was .303, and three other men topped .380.

This is not that type of year. The AL batting average entering Saturday was .264, the NL average even lower.

He's going to have limited defensive responsibilities.

Hornsby and Lajoie are the only middle infielders to hit .400. Hornsby was notoriously indifferent to defense, going so far as to refuse to catch pop-ups (that would require him to look into the sun and might damage his eyes.) Lajoie played in a time when double plays were rare and defense at second was less important.

The other nine .400 seasons came from first basemen and outfielders. And those outfielders were not known as good defensive players either.

Mauer, of course, catches. He has major defensive chores and performs them well. He doesn’t have the luxury of focusing on his hitting.

He’s going to play in a hitter’s park.

The most likely venues: Coors Field (Denver), Fenway Park (Boston), Wrigley Field (Chicago).

The Metrodome skews toward pitchers, although that’s because it chokes off home runs. It’s a pretty good park for hitting for average, although not like those three.

He’s probably going to come very close to the minimum standard of 501 plate appearances, and will further cut down on official at-bats by drawing walks.

This assertion is not based on the historical record so much as logic. It’s got to be easier to get 200 hits in 500 at-bats than it is to get 240 hits in 600 at-bats. The shorter the season, the more likely it is to get an outlier average.

Mauer has this on his side. His 2009 season has been shortened by a full month by his back injury. Indeed, he remains short of qualifying, although he’s closing the gap rapidly.



Edward Thoma is a Free Press staff writer. He is at 344-6377 or at ethoma@mankatofreepress.com. He also has a baseball blog at www.mankatofreepress.com/ethomabaseball

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