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    Joe Mauer

September 27, 2009

This is Mauer's year for the big prize

The Twins’ September surge may not topple the Tigers from the top of the AL Central, but it is undercutting the most potent argument against Joe Mauer’s MVP candidacy.

Mauer is the best hitter in the American League, and it’s not close. He leads in batting average (by 18 points entering Sunday’s play); in on-base percentage (by 33 points); in slugging percentage (by 42 points).

But ... two things:

1) He missed a full month of the season, so his counting stats — home runs, RBIs, runs scored — aren’t nearly so overwhelming; and

2) The Twins are barely a contender, slogging along in second place in the league’s weakest division.

A few weeks ago, when they were seven games behind Detroit, that last item might have been: The Twins aren’t contenders, much less a playoff team. And that fact alone might have sunk Mauer’s candidacy.

Mauer is widely recognized as the best player in the league. But it’s not a Player of the Year vote, it’s a Most Valuable Player vote, and the writers like winners. As a general rule, I like the notion that the MVP should come from a winning team. The electorate doesn’t always follow that notion, but it usually does — and in the exceptions, the winner is generally the best player in the league in a season in which he’s so clearly the best that it overwhelms the others.

Is this such a season?

The non-Mauer chatter has centered on two Yankees, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter. They have the advantage of playing on the league’s best team, so those focused on winning have them to chose from.

Teixeira leads the league in RBIs and may well lead in homers by season’s end (he trails the injured Carlos Pena). If the writers like winners, they positively love RBIs — almost every glaringly bad MVP choice (George Bell and Andre Dawson in 1987, for example) led the league in ribbies.

Jeter has the sentimental support. A great player, he has never won an MVP, and those arguing for him suggest that he should get it in part as a career achievement award. The Jeter argument is specious. Career achievement award — that’s the Hall of Fame. This is a single season award.

Teixeira’s bulk RBIs are in large part a matter of context. He hits behind Jeter (.403 OBP) and Johnny Damon (.367 OBP); Mauer hits behind Denard Span (.393 OBP) and a middle infielder with an OBP below .300.

Teixeira’s batting average with men in scoring position: .266, 66th in the league, in the company of Rod Barajas and Orlando Cabrera. Mauer’s: .376, second in the league (behind Jason Bartlett).

Defense? The stat mavens claim Teixeira's’ glovework this season is merely average, but he maintains a fine defensive reputation. Even if he’s the best defensive player at his position, it’s still first base, the place you play if you can’t handle any other position.

Mauer catches. And he catches well. I doubt there’s any serious argument that a Gold Glove-caliber catcher saves more runs than a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman.

Then there’s this: Teixeira’s numbers aren’t meaningfully better than those of a half-dozen AL first basemen. Miguel Cabrera, Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales — even the injured Pena and Justin Morneau — have similar power stats. Teixiera's are slightly better, at least without considering context; in context, there’s not much separating him from the first base pack.

Mauer, in truth, should have won the MVP in 2006 and 2008. He didn’t because he didn’t have home run numbers to impress the voters. This year, he’s hit 28 dingers.

And this year, he’ll get the trophy.



Edward Thoma is a Free Press staff writer. He is at 344-6377 or at ethoma@mankatofreepress.com. He also has a baseball blog at www.mankatofreepress.com/ethomabaseball

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