By Jim Rueda
There will be fantasy football drafts galore over the next two weeks and, with that in mind, it’s time to unveil my top five fantasy sleepers for 2009.
Before naming names, a quick observation on how to gauge the value of wide receivers.
Ideally you want them to be one of the first two targets on their actual NFL teams. Keep in mind that just because a receiver is listed as a starter doesn’t mean he’s one of those top two targets.
Chris Chambers of San Diego is a perfect example. He’s considered the team’s No. 2 wide receiver after Vincent Jackson but, in reality, he’s usually the No. 4 receiving option on any given play.
Jackson and tight end Antonio Gates are usually the primary targets. After them, whichever running back — either LaDainian Tomlinson or Darren Sproells — is in the game is the third option. When all those guys are covered, then Rivers might look towards Chambers.
Fantasy players have noticed that trend the last few seasons and that’s why Chambers is going very late in most fantasy drafts. He simply doesn’t have much value.
New England doesn’t have a high-powered tight end like Gates so both of their starting wide outs — Randy Moss and Wes Welker — are valuable fantasy players. Atlanta just acquired a premier tight end in Tony Gonzalez and that makes whoever starts at wide receiver opposite Roddy White just about irrelevant.
In short, you want guys whose quarterbacks will throw the ball in their direction.
OK, now for our 2009 sleepers. We’re defining a sleeper as someone who will perform significantly better than where he gets drafted.
Fred Taylor, RB, New England: This is a starting running back who is getting drafted in the 13th, 14th and even 15th round of 15-round drafts. He won’t score a ton of fantasy points but should be very effective as a No. 3 or 4 back and bye-week fill-in.
Shaun Hill, QB, San Francisco: Hill was named the starting quarterback on Monday and, like Taylor, has been sticking around fantasy drafts until the last few rounds as a No. 2 or 3 passer. He’ll be better than that and could even end the season as a low-end No. 1 QB.
Brent Celek, TE, Philadelphia: Celek is often going undrafted but deserves to be in the top 12 in a 12-team league. He came on late in the season and shined in three playoff games with 151 yards and three touchdowns. With L.J. Smith gone via free agency, Celek could be a late-round steal.
Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Miami: Ginn is going around the 8th, 9th or 10th round in most 12-team drafts and should be considered a pretty good bargain. He has yet to put up good numbers as a wide out, but has a wealth of talent and a very stable quarterback in Chad Pennington.
Josh Morgan, WR, San Francisco: Morgan is usually still on the draft board after the 10th round but his potential says he should be going sooner. With No. 1 draft choice Michael Crabtree still holding out, Morgan is looking good in training camp and could be Hill’s primary target all season.
Next Week: You’re 2009 fantasy busts.
Jim Rueda is the Free Press sports editor. To contact him, call 344-6381 or e-mail him at jrueda@mankatofreepress.com.
