— The Twins on Thursday began their formal planning for the offseason, and by Friday had made a pair of moves (exercising their contract option on Jason Kubel, declining the option on Nick Punto).

Those were relatively easy, obvious decisions. Much more difficult ones await.

A good way for fans to get a handle on the issues confronting general manager Bill Smith and his colleagues this winter is the TwinsCentric “Offseason GM Handbook.”

TwinsCentric is a consortium of Twins-oriented bloggers looking for ways to make some money out of their passion. One of them, Seth Strohs, sent me an advance copy of the e-book last week looking for feedback.

Time issues prevented me from offering useful advice. What he’s getting instead is this review.

The book (92 pages, $9.95, pdf only, available after the World Series through Twinscentric.blogspot.com) sets out practical, realistic assessments of what the organization has, what it needs, and where and how it might fill those needs. There are no “trade Nick Blackburn even up for Felix Hernandez” pipedreams here.

The four bloggers involved (alphabetically John Bonnes, Parker Hageman, Nick Nelson and Strohs) each offer their individual blueprint for Smith to follow. My take on those blueprints is that

(a) I prefer Strohs’ plan to the other three and

(b) Bonnes is probably accurate in predicting that the Twins will follow a less active approach.

But there will be activity. For one thing, the bullpen has to be reconstructed — Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes all become free agents after the World Series, and there are legitimate reasons to keep or to shy away from Matt Capps. Also up for free agency: Carl Pavano and Jim Thome.

I haven’t considered the options as formally as the TwinsCentric crew, but my immediate opinions on these matters are:

1) The only way the Twins retain any of the Crain-Guerrier-Rauch-Fuentes foursome is if they non-tender Capps, and even then only one (probably Crain).

2) I expect the Twins to keep Capps, in part because if they cut him loose they have nothing to show for Wilson Ramos and in part because they don’t really know how Joe Nathan will respond to his elbow surgery and Ron Gardenhire wants to structure his bullpen around a closer.

3) I expect them to offer Pavano arbitration and let him sign elsewhere. That’s also what I hope they do; a year ago his arrow was pointing up, now it’s pointing down.

4) Jim Thome is either going to be with the Twins or the White Sox, and for less than the $4 million the TwinsCentric consensus thinks it will take to sign him. (More on this opinion in my blog today.)

The Twins front office is laying the groundwork now for what comes in the next few months. The TwinsCentric book — whether you like their prescriptions or not — can help you understand what transpires.

 

Edward Thoma is a Free Press staff writer. He is at 344-6377 or at ethoma@mankatofreepress.com. He also has a baseball blog at www.mankatofreepress.com