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March 7, 2010

Perkins too valuable of an arm to discard

Edward Thoma Free Press Staff Writer

MANKATO — On paper, the Twins are looking for a fifth starter.

In flesh and blood, that’s just the beginning.

It is simply not realistic to expect the five starters that open the season to make 32-plus starts apiece (162 games divided by five starters equals 32.4 starts per man).

It doesn’t work that way. Pitchers get hurt; it’s in the nature of the job.

You never have too much pitching. Every team has more than 1,400 innings to throw this season, and nobody’s going to get 1,000 innings out of their top five starters.

And especially not the Twins. Of the four “sure” starters, only Nick Blackburn hasn’t missed significant time in the past two seasons, and even he has averaged less than 200 innings.

As matters stand — and we’re always one pitch away from somebody grabbing his elbow and drastically changing the equation — Francisco Liriano figures to join Blackburn, Scott Baker, Carl Pavano and Kevin Slowey in the rotation.

Liriano has the edge because 2006 is not such a distant memory that there’s no hope of recapturing it; because the reports on his performance in winter ball were so sensational; because, unlike rival lefties Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins, Liriano is out of options.

But Liriano threw just 136 innings last season. He’s never worked 200 innings in a season.

Of the starting pitchers the Twins have on hand, he’s most talented, the best bet to give them an ace on the level of Detroit’s Justin Verlander, Chicago’s Jake Peavy or Kansas City’s Zach Grienke. But unlike those three, he’s never done it for the entire season.

Then there’s Slowey, who this spring described the surgery on his pitching wrist as a reconstruction. Slowey’s great strength as a pitcher — really, the reason he’s in the majors — is his superb precision. If his wrist isn’t right, his pitches aren’t going to be precise — and he doesn’t have the stuff to survive without that precision.

Pavano’s injury history is enough to tempt an insurer to declare bankruptcy.

Baker, the Opening Day starter designate two seasons running, missed a month last year.

All of which means it would be risky indeed for the Twins to move Perkins, no matter how much bad blood remains between him and the organization.

On paper, Perkins may be no more than Plan C to fill out the rotation, behind Liriano (Plan A) and Duensing (Plan B). But in flesh and blood, Plan C might not be deep enough.



Edward Thoma is a Free Press staff writer. He is at 344-6377 or at ethoma@mankatofreepress.com. He also has a baseball blog at www.mankatofreepress.com

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