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August 31, 2010

Running back value ain’t what it used to be

By Jim Rueda Free Press Sports Editor

MANKATO — Some of you may have already had your fantasy drafts but most will be drafting sometime within the next 10 days.

For the longest time I was an advocate of the always-take-two-running-backs-with-your-first-two-picks theory of drafting. While that’s still not a bad strategy, times have changed.

The advent of points-per-reception scoring, leagues that start three wide receivers instead of two, and starting lineups that include flex positions have made wideouts much more valuable than they used to be.   

In 2010 I think the best advice I can give any fantasy owner is to be flexible on draft day. If you go in thinking ‘I have to take a quarterback in the fifth round’ but all the top guns are already gone, you’ll end up reaching for a QB that you could probably pick a round or two later.

After the first three rounds you should ask yourself two questions before every pick: What are my needs and who are the top players left on the board?

If you’re in the fourth round and you already have two runnings backs and a receiver, the LAST thing you want to pick is another running back, even if there’s a great one still sitting out there. Logic might say take another receiver at that point but, if it looks like there’s a bunch of receivers with equal ability still left, it makes more sense to look at a tight end or a quarterback.

One specific piece of advice I’ll give is this: Take a running back with at least one of your first two picks.

You could get lucky and end up with a Beanie Wells and a LeSean McCoy in Rounds 3 and 4, but more than likely you’ll end up with a Jonathan Stewart and a Joseph Addai. Those last two will not give you a wealth of production over the course of the season.

If you’re very strong at the other positions you could be successful with a Stewart-Addai duo, but the chances aren’t good. It’s best to avoid that type of scenario.

By now you have your cheat sheets made and perhaps have taken a practice/mock draft or two. You have a developed a strategy of what you want to do if you draft early, or draft in the middle or draft late.

But remember, be fexible. At some point the owner who drafts in front of you is going to snag the player you want. Don’t dwell on it or robotically draft the next best player at the same position. See what your options are and make a smart pick.

If there’s one other nugget I can leave you with it’s this: Don’t reach for your sleepers too early. There’s nothing wrong with stable, proven players on your bench even if you know there’s no breakout season in store for them.

They may not be as sexy as the receiver you and only two other guys at the draft have ever heard of but they are a lot safer and will likely help your team more. Being boring is not a bad thing on fantasy draft day.

Good luck.



Jim Rueda is the Free Press sports editor. To contact him, call 344-6381 or e-mail him at jrueda@mankatofreepress.com. Check out his JR’s Fantasy World blog at www.mankatofreepress.com

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