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September 7, 2010

Wideouts don’t always need time to develop

By Jim Rueda Free Press Sports Editor

MANKATO — It’s been an axiom in fantasy football for a long time now that wide receivers traditionally don’t start to produce until their third year in the league. The rationale behind the theory is that it takes that long for the receiver to learn the nuances of playing in the NFL and to establish a rapport with his quarterback.

Recent trends, however, are beginning to debunk that axiom. Last year, Percy Harvin (Minnesota), Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia), Michael Crabtree (San Francisco) and Austin Collie (Indianapolis) all produced as rookies. Hakeem Nicks (N.Y. Giants), Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh) and Kenny Britt (Tennessee) also showed flashes in their first seasons.

Some second-year wideouts also produced, including Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis), DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia) and Robert Meachem (New Orleans). While the three-year wide receiver rule may be fine as a general guideline, it’s not nearly as important as who the receiver is and what situation is he getting into.

It was certainly no stretch to assume that Harvin would get a lot of touches right away. The same was true of Crabtree and Jackson and both Garcon and Collie (once Anthony Gonzalez got hurt).

The situations were also key. Talented wideouts who go to teams with suspect quarterbacks will rarely flourish at the start of their careers. Meachem was catching passes from Drew Brees, Wallace had Roethlisberger, Harvin had Favre ... you get the idea.

Here are a few guys who should buck the three-year receiver rule and start producing more quickly.

Rookie Dez Bryant of the Cowboys has missed virtually all of the preseason, but he’s a monster talent. He’s on a team with a good quarterback (Tony Romo) and a need for a starting wideout (Roy Williams is officially a bust). That makes Bryant an attractive wideout as early as this year.

Another rookie is Mike Williams from Tampa Bay. He doesn’t have the marquee quarterback (Josh Freeman) that other teams do, but he’s been productive in the preseason and has already been tabbed a starter. Freeman is expected to make a giant leap forward this year which should make Williams a viable wideout in Year 1.

Rookie Dexter McCluster has an outside chance to be a decent producer but he’s on a mediocre team with a so-so quarterback. He’s probably a year or two away.

The previously mentioned second-year wideouts — Harvin, Crabtree, Maclin and Nicks — will also be expected to produce. A few others who might break out this year are both Brian Robiske and Mohamed Massaquoi in Cleveland. The play of quaterback Jake Delhomme will obviously affect their value.

A few third-year receivers who might actually fulfill the promise of the three-year rule (aside from those who produced early) are Early Doucet in Arizona, Josh Morgan in San Francisco, Devin Thomas in Washington and Eddie Royal in Denver. Royal had a tremendous rookie season but then slumped badly last year.

If you still have a draft coming up are already looking to hit the waiver wire, keep an eye on these guys. They may be primed to help your team.



Jim Rueda is the Free Press sports editor. To contact him, call 344-6381 or e-mail him at jrueda@mankatofreepress.com. Check out his JR’s Fantasy World blog at www.mankatofreepress.com

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