By Mark Fischenich
MANKATO — A passenger rail line from Mankato to the Twin Cities is one of four potential new routes in the state that “appear to be initially promising,” according to a draft rail study being developed for the Minnesota Department of Transportation and the Legislature.
The report — sent Wednesday to members of a statewide rail planning task force — has compiled estimates of ridership on different proposed rail corridors by the year 2030, and it predicts the Mankato route would attract 228,100 riders a year. The only cities currently without rail service that would have higher ridership are St. Cloud (712,500), Hinckley (283,000) and Eau Claire, Wis., (256,900), according to the report.
The numbers were surprising even for the area lawmaker who first suggested that the Mankato-Twin Cities corridor be studied for future passenger rail.
“A year ago, I would have described passenger rail between Mankato and the Twin Cities as a distant hope,” said Rep. Terry Morrow, DFL-St. Peter. “Six months ago, I would have said, ‘Well, it’s a possibility.’ After reading the draft report, there’s real promise in a much shorter time frame than I would have guessed. Those numbers really surprised me.”
Mankato’s potential for passenger rail demand to the metro area exceeds most other regional centers including Winona, Fargo, Willmar and Sioux Falls, S.D. The Mankato projection is based on a service level of four trains a day to the Twin Cities, following the Union Pacific line along the east side of the Minnesota River to the southwestern suburbs and into Minneapolis.
Even for the larger cities of Duluth and Rochester, projected demand is below Mankato’s, according to the report prepared by consultant Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
Duluth — at a service level of eight trains a day — would generate an estimated annual ridership to the Twin Cities of just over 100,000 by 2030. If Rochester is connected to a high-speed rail line from Chicago to the Twin Cities, it’s anticipated to provide 223,600 passengers.
Based simply on ridership demand, the report lists as “promising” the various routes connecting the Twin Cities to Chicago, Eau Claire, Hinckley, Mankato, Northfield and St. Cloud. An extension of the Hinckley line to Duluth is also mentioned, although the report cautions that “extending to Duluth involves expensive infrastructure improvements and modest demand.”
The quality of the UP line from Mankato gets a better review in the report, which states that “significant capital improvements have been made to the corridor in recent years.”
Mankato’s relatively high potential ridership is based both on projected population growth and an estimate that a higher percentage of area residents will choose rail. The report estimates that 5.6 percent of trips from Mankato to the Twin Cities will be by rail, compared to 3.5 percent from Rochester to the metro and 2 percent from Duluth.
Mankato City Manager Pat Hentges, who serves on the statewide rail task force, said he believes that higher percentage is based on the Mankato area’s higher percentage of young people — a group that’s willing to use public transit systems, including the local bus system.
“We have a very young population that seems to be open to it,” Hentges said. “That probably is a factor that affected that.”
Hentges said a societal change in attitudes about travel is necessary before a widespread passenger rail system will be feasible, but that might happen if gasoline prices reach $5 a gallon and airline tickets skyrocket along with jet fuel costs. Rising fuel prices weren’t factored into the ridership estimates.
If local passenger rail service connects to a nationwide system of high-speed trains, that would also promote ridership.
“All those things come into play,” he said.
As does cost.
“Certainly, there’s going to be finite resources,” Morrow said.
But MnDOT seems to be committed to a varied transportation infrastructure, he said. And if passenger rail is expanded in coming decades, Hentges said Morrow seems to have put Mankato in the mix.
That wasn’t the case prior to this legislative session as Mankato stayed on the sidelines while lawmakers from suburban areas and other outstate regional centers introduced bills seeking funding for commuter and passenger rail systems. In March, Morrow introduced a bill asking that the “The Minnesota Valley Line” be studied.
The bill was introduced too late to get a hearing in the 2009 legislative session, but the consultant’s ridership study stated that the Mankato route was included in the study because it had been “proposed by a Minnesota State Representative.”
“It sure makes me happy that I put that bill in this year,” Morrow said.
