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March 15, 2010

Closers are made, not born

Edward Thoma Free Press Staff Writer

MANKATO — He came to the major leagues as a starter and failed in that role. He moved to the bullpen and worked in middle relief, where he was better but not eye-poppingly great.

A vacancy occurred in the closer role, and he landed the ninth-inning job. And he became a star.

He is Eddie Guardado. He is Ryan Franklin. He is Joe Nathan.

This is a familiar pattern. Most standout closers were starters in the minors and washed out — for reasons of injury or secondary pitches — in that role in the majors. Rollie Fingers. Goose Gossage. Mariano Rivera got hurt as a starter. So did Nathan.

No baseball talent is more fragile — or more replaceable — than relief pitching. The glorification of the save has created an aura around the closer that is transparently silly upon examination.

That aura matters more in the attitude in the dugout and clubhouse than it does on the field.

Nathan, over the past six seasons, did the job about as well as it can be done. And it really didn’t matter that much.

Baseball Info Systems rates save opportunities as Easy, Regular, or Tough. “Easy” means the pitcher entered with the tying run not on base or at the plate and with three outs or less to go. “Tough” means the reliever entered with the tying run on base. All others are regular. Nathan last season had 35 “easy” opportunities and converted 32 of them. Both led the majors. That’s a 91.4 percent conversion rate; the major league average in 2009 was 89 percent. Had he a MLB average rate, he’d have blown one extra “easy” save.

He had 16 regular opportunities, converted 14 (87.5 percent vs. an MLB average of 61 percent; difference of four converted saves); he had one “tough,” and converted it.

But ... the MLB averages for those categories are distorted by middle relievers who enter in a “save opportunity” in the seventh or eighth inning with no real chance to finish the game and get the save.

The key idea here is that more than two-thirds of Nathan’s save opportunities came in relatively low-pressure situations.

Nathan held 90 percent of his save opportunities in 2009. Matt Guerrier held 92 percent of the leads entrusted to him. Jose Mijares held 96 percent of his leads.

It is true that Nathan pitched until the game was over or the game gone, while Guerrier and Mijares were used in matchups. But the setup men came in far more often with men on base.

Nathan was clearly the best, most talented relief pitcher on the Twins team. If, as seems likely, he’s out for the season, the team is weaker.

Weaker but not doomed.

A hallmark of a good organization is its ability to reshape its relief corps. This is a good organization. It has bullpen options. We can be confident it will find a workable solution.



Edward Thoma is a Free Press staff writer. He is at 344-6377 or at ethoma@mankatofreepress.com. He also has a baseball blog at www.mankatofreepress.com

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