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February 22, 2009

Third base improvement has a Crede-bility gap

Ed Thoma

The best thing to be said about the Joe Crede signing: There’s very little downside.

The free-agent third baseman — whose agent, Scott Boras, had supposedly been demanding $7 million in guaranteed money — wound up settling for $2.5 million guaranteed, plus incentive bonuses up to $7 million based on plate appearances.

The guaranteed money in this deal is roughly what the Twins will pay Mike Lamb not to play for them this season.

So the Twins now have an established third baseman for a relative pittance while retaining their Brian Buscher-Brendan Harris platoon option should Crede’s back go sour for a third straight season.

Great deal, right? Not so fast.

Here’s the truth of the matter: While a healthy Crede is a better all-round player than either Buscher or Harris, he doesn’t improve the offense.

Crede hits more home runs, or at least he has: a high of 30 in 2006, plus seasons of 22, 21, 19, and 17. Harris and Buscher have combined for 28 in their major league careers. Since the Twins have a well-documented lack of fence-busters, that’s a significant advantage for Crede.

But: Crede is a low-average, low-walks hitter. His career on-base percentage is a mere .306. Harris’ is .330, Buscher’s, .335.

The result: Crede’s slugging superiority is washed away by the platoon Twins’ ability to reach base.

There’s a stat called OPS+ — On-base percentage Plus Slugging percentage, adjusted for home parks — that measures a player’s offensive production to the league average. According to Baseball-reference.com, Crede for his career is 93 — meaning that his offensive production is 93 percent of the average AL regular. (Crede’s home run strength is muted a bit because his home park is an easy touch for boppers.) Buscher is also at 93 percent; Harris is 97 percent, but was a 93 in 2008.

Equal production at the plate; it’s just shaped differently.

Now, there’s no doubt that Crede is the best defensive third baseman of the three. Buscher’s throwing arm is erratic, and Harris, by his own admission, would rather play shortstop. (Not that he’s a good shortstop.)

Crede has had two back surgeries in as many years. He missed 180 games in 2007-08. And now he’s going to be playing his home games on artificial turf.

All of which means, his team can’t count on him for 150 games. Which is a big part of why the White Sox weren’t interested in re-signing him.

Another, if obscure, problem is roster flexibility. This signing significantly alters the bench.

Harris and Buscher — needed to protect against the likelihood that Crede will miss significant time with injuries — are out of options. They can’t be sent to the minors. So Matt Tolbert probably won’t make the 25-man roster — which means Harris, a weak defensive middle infielder, will be the backup to Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla.

That’s assuming the Twins stick with last season’s 12-pitcher roster formation. Ron Gardenhire was quoted in the wake of the Crede signing as saying he might go with 11 this year. Does he have that much faith in his young starting rotation? He didn’t last season — but this season he doesn’t have to baby Jesse Crain, and doesn’t have one-batter Dennys Reyes at all.



Edward Thoma is a Free Press staff writer. He is at 344-6377 or at ethoma@mankatofreepress.com. He also has a baseball blog at www.mankatofreepress.com/ethomabaseball/

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